Our research project delves into the mysteries of New Zealand’s active volcanic mountains. Join us on this journey of discovery and learn about the potential impacts of these volcanoes on the environment, economy, and local population.
These experiences equip me in my main focus of attention, the volcanoes of Aotearoa, where I specialise both hydrothermal eruptions (e.g., in geothermal-volcano areas of Wai-o-tapu, Rotokawa, Waimungu, Te Maari, Whakaari), and the hazards of our mountain volcanoes; Tongariro, Ruapehu, Ngauruhoe, and Taranaki.
I grew up in Taupo, surrounded by volcanoes, hot springs and fumaroles.The weekends spent fossicking around the hot pools looking for clay and Sulphur obviously influenced me when I ultimately chose my path through the Earth Sciences at Massey University.
I worked on Ruapehu and Tongariro volcanoes during my PhD, with Ruapehu erupting in 1995-96 to propel me in to a career in physical volcanology and volcanic hazards.
My research applies methods of geochemical, geophysical and sedimentological analysis to revealing the past history of volcanoes.
I use this history to design scenarios of possible future eruption styles and impacts and to forecast the probabilities of future eruptions.
I have worked on active volcanic eruptions and studied volcanoes throughout the world (Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iceland, Indonesia, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Chile, Samoa, Tonga).
Combined with our current understanding of magmatic processes and the generation of associated seismic signals, this model will enable us to estimate more precisely what the precursory sequence and its timeframe could look like as well as which types of volcanic hazards can be expected, allowing to adapt risk mitigation strategies accordingly.
Having undertaken a bachelor’s programme in Earth Sciences in Potsdam, Germany as well as a course in Geophysical Hazards at University College London for my masters.
I decided to dive deeper into the field of volcano-seismology, which lead me to the University of Auckland and the Taranaki project.
I am investigating possible seismic precursors to eruptive activity, should Taranaki decides to end its ca. 200 year sleep.
For this purpose, and due to the lack of recorded data about any of Taranaki’s previous eruptions, I am looking for analogue volcanoes with similar characteristics as Taranaki,
such as magma composition and eruption history.
The seismic signals that have preceded eruptions at these analogue volcanoes will be analysed by Machine Learning techniques to develop a model basing on the Generic Volcanic Earthquake Swarm Model (GVESM), which suggests that seismic events prior to an eruption follow a distinct pattern.
My training in geotechnical sciences and volcanology has made me aware of the importance of the hazards associated with natural phenomena; a further understanding of magma fragmentation processes will aid in developing the resilience of communities to volcanic hazards.
I graduated as a Geological Engineer from the Universidad de Los Andes, ULA (Venezuela), and after working in industry for some time I pursued a Masters degree in the study of fine soil materials (clays) within the framework of an ERASMUS MUNDUS program. I graduated in 2014 with a double degree from the Université de Poitiers (France) and the Technical University of Crete (Greece).
During my Ph.D. at the University of Perugia, Italy (Marie Curie Project, ITN-VERTIGO), I focused on the study of magma fragmentation and ash generation in explosive volcanic eruptions. My main area of interest was analyzing Grain Size Distributions (GSDs) of volcanic natural products and experimentally generated pyroclasts, and evaluating the feasibility of using fractal analysis for clarifying dynamics of ash generation. The results of my investigation allowed for a more detailed view of the processes responsible for the generation of these GSDs during magma ascent. The most exciting element of this study is understanding if analogous experiments in the laboratory are able to reproduce what happens in nature, enabling us to shed light on elusive volcanic processes, such as ash-generation. If successful, results will be key in the design of ash-related hazard models. This interrelation continues to guide my research interests, as I explore the links between the efficiency of fragmentation and eruptive energy, and volcanic risks and associated hazards.
Combined with our current understanding of magmatic processes and the generation of associated seismic signals, this model will enable us to estimate more precisely what the precursory sequence and its timeframe could look like as well as which types of volcanic hazards can be expected, allowing to adapt risk mitigation strategies accordingly.
Having undertaken a bachelor’s programme in Earth Sciences in Potsdam, Germany as well as a course in Geophysical Hazards at University College London for my masters.
I decided to dive deeper into the field of volcano-seismology, which lead me to the University of Auckland and the Taranaki project.
I am investigating possible seismic precursors to eruptive activity, should Taranaki decides to end its ca. 200 year sleep.
For this purpose, and due to the lack of recorded data about any of Taranaki’s previous eruptions, I am looking for analogue volcanoes with similar characteristics as Taranaki,
such as magma composition and eruption history.
The seismic signals that have preceded eruptions at these analogue volcanoes will be analysed by Machine Learning techniques to develop a model basing on the Generic Volcanic Earthquake Swarm Model (GVESM), which suggests that seismic events prior to an eruption follow a distinct pattern.
Alana is finishing her PhD in volcanic impact assessment.
Alana has worked in a variety of research areas, including physical volcanology and fluid dynamics (University of Bristol, UK), volcanic monitoring (University of Colima, MX), climate policy and atmospheric modelling (University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA) and disaster risk and resilience (University of Canterbury, NZ).
Her expertise include numerical modelling, geospatial analysis, remote sensing, and hazard and impact assessment.
In recent years, Alana has worked closely with emergency managers and decision-makers to identify key hazard vulnerabilities and deduce strategies for improved resilience.
Alana is an early-career researcher, with experience in physical volcanology, systemic vulnerability assessment, and hazard and impact assessment.
Alana has a strong interest in vulnerability metrics, co-creation of impact assessment methodologies, and investigating trade-offs and optimal mitigation strategies.
Alana has worked with emergency management groups and industrial stakeholders in the US and NZ to develop decision-making and impact assessment frameworks for atmospheric pollution and volcanic hazards respectively.
Alana also has an interest in the socio-economic impact of disasters, and improving societal resilience to system disruptors.
Heather is currently a Hazard and Risk Analyst at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). Her current research focus is undertaking applied research on risk modelling, vulnerability and resilience, with a strong focus on user engagement and applications in rural settings.
Heather completed a PhD in Hazard and Disaster Management at University of Canterbury in 2015. Her PhD research focussed on quantifying agricultural vulnerability to volcanic hazards, through post-event impact assessments and consultation with a broad range of international experts.
Prior to her current role, Heather worked across local government and Civil Defence Emergency Management in a Senior Hazard Advisor role. This work included disseminating natural hazard impact and resilience building methods to a variety of audiences including town/district planners, emergency management professionals, and the public.
Heather’s research interests include: risk reduction through policy and planning; the application of risk assessment tools for improved emergency management; agricultural and environmental vulnerability function development; quantifying and reducing social vulnerability; and effective risk communication approaches.
Her role in the He Mounga Puia, Puea Rū, Puea Kōrero project is coordinating the rural engagement programme to communicate and test the outputs of the agricultural impact modelling, in order to identify innovative risk management strategies for primary industries in the Taranaki region.
Emma is undertaking a research management role within the HMP/TTVF programme, working closely with Tom Wilson, Roger Fairclough, and Alana Weir on Research Aim 1.1 (Co-creation processes).
She completed a Bachelor of Science in Geography and Environmental Science (and Sociology) at the University of Canterbury and recently graduated from the Masters of Disaster Risk and Resilience programme with distinction.
Emma is currently working towards her Masters of Science thesis which focuses on enhancing volcanic evacuation resilience in the Taranaki region. Her research aims to;
Esther has a background in geology and Asian languages. She is interested in volcanic hazards and how they impact the surrounding area. Currently, Esther is researching building model for tephra and lahar clean-up in urban and rural environments. This is being completed through He Mounga Puia -Transitioning Taranaki to a Volcanic Future (TTVF) project.
Ānei rā te mihi ki a koutou! He uri au nō Ngāti Mutunga ō Wharekauri me Te Āti Awa.
I was raised in Wharekauri / Rerekohu and am now living in Ōtautahi where my whānau moved for education opportunities. As a mokopuna of Taranaki Mounga, I wish to reconnect with our whenua, whanaunga, marae and to serve Taranaki Māori research aspirations.
Being a kōhanga kid then trained by the western disaster science system, I think my superpower could be connecting people and knowledge systems. My passion for community resilience and rangatiratanga of disaster risk management was ignited by my tupuna, flared by lived experiences of the Ōtautahi earthquakes and is fuelled by a decade of studying and working in this interspace.
My PhD kaupapa is to assemble a Māori-centred pathway for eruption foresight and planning. How can Taranaki Māori weave Mātauranga-a-iwi and volcanic risk science to support Māori-led eruption planning and future-proofing?
I began my part-time PhD in 2021, funded by a UC Matariki Doctoral Scholarship with support from He Mounga Puia and Te Toi Whakaruruhau o Aotearoa. I’m also part of the Te One Kakara kaupapa and 2022 Māori and Indigenous Leadership (MMIL) Taranaki cohort. I’m supervised by Prof Tom Wilson, Dr Acushla (Dee) Sciascia, Dr Sarah Beaven and Prof Christine Kenney. I’m also lucky to be mentored by a wider research whānau and would love to connect, learn and contribute in ways I can to Taranaki kaupapa.
An extension of this research will involve the discussion of magmatic conditions at Mt Taranaki within the wider context of arc volcanism.
I am a current PhD candidate at Macquarie University under the guidance of Prof Simon Turner and Dr John Creech, after developing a special interest in New Zealand volcanology and tectonics while undertaking my Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees at the University of Auckland.
The primary focus of my research project is the reconstruction of the volatile inventory of key Plinian to sub-Plinian eruptions from Mt Taranaki, through the application of microanalytical techniques.
I will be undertaking the reconstruction of magmatic water contents and magmatic conditions along an evolutionary pathway via sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe – stable isotope (SHRIMP-SI) analysis of nominally anhydrous minerals (NAMs).
The rate of magmatic ascent, magma cooling and the interaction with the mantle wedge will be investigated via 238U – 230Th – 226Ra nuclides, with an aim to constrain the genesis and evolutionary pathways of the potassium-rich andesitic magmas of Mt Taranaki.
Garry McDonald is one of the founding directors of M.E. He has a PhD in ecological economics and previously held a position within Manaaki Whenua Landcare Research. Garry’s research interests focus on the integration of environmental, social and economic dimensions of sustainability and resilience, and the use of systems and data-science tools and techniques to assist public and private decision making within these contexts.
Over the past two decades Garry has successfully founded the M.E Research team, a group that uniquely combines research and consulting in the development of decision-support tools, starting from initial conception in innovative science, through to real-world application in policy evaluation and project feasibility studies. Through his wide experience Garry has developed an extensive network of research colleagues and commercial and public sector clients.
Garry presently co-leads the ‘Multi-Hazard Risk Model’ programme within the Resilience to Nature’s Challenges National Science Challenge and co-leads the MBIE Endeavour research programme ‘Transitioning Taranaki to Volcanic Futures’. He has been an invited professor at Universite de Versailles (France) and has held or currently holds adjunct professorship roles at University of Auckland, University of Canterbury and Massey University.
Nicky is one of two directors within the M.E Research team. She has some 15 years’ experience, mainly in research and consulting at M.E but also in planning at the local government level. Nicky is broadly interested in assisting communities to improve their wellbeing, including through enhancement of ecological sustainability and resilience to natural hazards. These interests are reflected in her chosen academic background in geography, law and, more recently, a PhD completed in ecological economics and supported through a Bright Futures scholarship.
During her time at M.E, Nicky has worked on a range of exciting and cutting-edge projects. These include the creation a of new modelling tool, MERIT, that simulates economic systems disrupted by infrastructure outages or natural hazards, development of a framework for valuing the benefits of different types of water demand management and assisting local government and stakeholders to assess alternative transition pathways towards improved freshwater quality. She has expertise in complex system enquiry and economic evaluation frameworks and methods. Nicky is currently a Research Aim leader within the ‘Transitioning Taranaki to Volcanic Futures’ Endeavour research programme.
Juan joined M.E’s Research team after having worked at Texas A&M University and Scion for almost 12 years. Juan specialises in the application of numerical methods, namely optimisation protocols (e.g. equilibrium models) as well as stochastic simulation, especially in contexts involving land-use change, ecosystem services, climate change, renewable energy and natural hazards.
Most of Juan’s work has been funded by private firms, government and three National Science Challenges. Such work has culminated in several publications in some of the world’s leading scientific journals such as Ecological Economics, Ecosystem Services, Science of the Total Environment, Environmental Science & Policy, and the Journal of Environmental Management. Such work has been used and cited by various government entities, private firms, and private consortia.
Juan currently leads a project funded by the Ministry for Primary Industries to model the direct and indirect impacts from potentially more frequent wildfires under future climatic change. Juan also serves as a section editor of the New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science and as associate advisor in master’s and doctoral degrees at the University of Canterbury and Lincoln University.
Stefania joined M.E’s research team in 2021. She holds a PhD in Environmental Economics from the University of Waikato. Her research expertise centres around the micro-econometrics of survey data with applications in public economics, especially in the environmental field. Stefania’s doctoral research focused on the economic valuation of landslide protection services using nonmarket valuation techniques. Stefania has worked in research projects on ecosystem services valuation, natural hazards mitigation and outdoor recreation. She has also technical experience working in the construction industry, as a sustainability specialist.
Nam is a researcher at M.E, specializing in climate change impacts, pandemic responses, and natural hazards. With a strong background in economics and mathematics, Nam utilizes econometric techniques and coding skills in R and Python. Additionally, he uses GIS software to address spatial challenges like flood and volcano risks.
Nam joined the ME Research team in 2022. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Auckland and an MSc in Environment Management and Economics from the University of Gothenburg, Sweden. His research interests include climate change impacts, responses to global pandemics, and natural hazards.
Nam’s skills encompass several econometric techniques, especially the difference-in-differences. A strong background in mathematics helps Nam feel comfortable with coding in R and Python. He also works well with GIS software to solve spatial problems relating to flood and volcano risks.
Les joined the M.E. team in April 2022, having worked as a scientist for 10 years at Scion. Between his roles at Scion and M.E., Les held forest management and consulting positions in the forest industry.
Les is interested in the application of quantitative methods to inform land-use management and adaptation. He specialises in the use of empirical and heuristic modeling with discounted cash flow analysis. Les has a strong background in applied land management and likes to work as a bridge between the theoretical and applied. Les sees the greatest potential for change at the intersection of different academic disciplines, world views, and schools of thought.
Mark co-leads (with Ting Wang) Research Aim 1.4 Simulating on-going and disruptive volcanism, and will be working on new models linking geochemical and volcanological models of ongoing volcanism.
Mark Bebbington received a BSc in geophysics and an MSc in probability theory from Victoria University of Wellington (New Zealand), followed by a PhD in applied probability from the University of Cambridge.
After a post-doc at the University of Queensland he took up a lectureship in stochastic operations research at Massey University, where he is now Professor in Geostatistics. Originally a statistical seismologist, Mark gravitated to volcanology and has focussed on developing new probabilistic techniques for eruption forecasting.
He has published > 120 refereed papers, about half of them in volcanology and seismology, the rest in other areas of probability and statistics.
He also has an interest in the development of indicators including Footprinting, Genuine Progress Indicators, and Full Cost Accounting.
Dee has a strong passion for the Taranaki Mounga project as this supports her whakapapa (genealogical) connections to her tūrangawaewae (place of standing) and whenua taurikura (ancestral lands).
Dr Acushla Sciascia is of Ngāruahine Rangi, Ngāti Ruanui and Te Āti Awa descent.
She completed her doctoral studies in 2013 with Massey University and since then has been working in the public sector as a research, evaluator and strategist.
Dee’s research background has largely emerged from Kaupapa Māori research specifically Māori negotiating and navigating new technologies and online environments.
Dee’s research interests have transitioned into the Climate Change space as was a part of the National Risk Assessment Framework for Climate Change panel and is co-leading the Mātauranga Māori Programme in the Resilience to Natures Challenges National Science Challenge.
Melody Whitehead is a postdoctoral fellow at Massey University. Her focus is on how to quantify and reduce the inherent uncertainties within geoscientific problems.
Mel’s research includes probabilistic modelling of natural hazards, sensitivity analyses around model boundaries and parameter selection, and modelling expert interpretation of geological data within a Bayesian brain.
Current work revolves around volcanism, multi-hazards, and expert cognitive bias.
Mel has a PhD in geology from the University of Auckland, and masters’ degrees in engineering and natural hazards from the University of Bristol.
Prior to her current position, Mel was a postdoctoral fellow in the geophysics department at the University of Edinburgh.
I am a current PhD student at Massey University, working under the supervision of Associate Professor Jonathan Procter.
I first fell in love with volcanoes in high school before continuing to find my passion for them in my Bachelor’s and Master’s at the University of Auckland.
My research is focusing on Mt Taranaki and Mt Ruapehu using textural characteristics to understand why we see such different and changing styles of activity and hazards overtime at these volcanoes.
Using x-ray micro tomography from the Australian Synchrotron, I will be looking at 3D scans of bubble networks to examine textural changes around large edifice collapses from Mt Taranaki between 20-30,000 years ago.
I will also be looking at changes within time periods where there have been drastic changes in the explosive eruptive history from Mt. Ruapehu between 10,000-2,000 years ago.
Using these analyses, I will determine how the changes in morphology of a volcanic edifice can influence the physical properties of the magma, therefore changing the nature of eruptive behaviour and hazards at the volcano.
I am a current PhD student at Massey University, working under the supervision of Associate Professor Jonathan Procter.
I first fell in love with volcanoes in high school before continuing to find my passion for them in my Bachelor’s and Master’s at the University of Auckland.
My research is focusing on Mt Taranaki and Mt Ruapehu using textural characteristics to understand why we see such different and changing styles of activity and hazards overtime at these volcanoes.
Using x-ray micro tomography from the Australian Synchrotron, I will be looking at 3D scans of bubble networks to examine textural changes around large edifice collapses from Mt Taranaki between 20-30,000 years ago.
I will also be looking at changes within time periods where there have been drastic changes in the explosive eruptive history from Mt. Ruapehu between 10,000-2,000 years ago.
Using these analyses, I will determine how the changes in morphology of a volcanic edifice can influence the physical properties of the magma, therefore changing the nature of eruptive behaviour and hazards at the volcano.
I am a current PhD student at Massey University, working under the supervision of Associate Professor Jonathan Procter.
I first fell in love with volcanoes in high school before continuing to find my passion for them in my Bachelor’s and Master’s at the University of Auckland.
My research is focusing on Mt Taranaki and Mt Ruapehu using textural characteristics to understand why we see such different and changing styles of activity and hazards overtime at these volcanoes.
Using x-ray micro tomography from the Australian Synchrotron, I will be looking at 3D scans of bubble networks to examine textural changes around large edifice collapses from Mt Taranaki between 20-30,000 years ago.
I will also be looking at changes within time periods where there have been drastic changes in the explosive eruptive history from Mt. Ruapehu between 10,000-2,000 years ago.
Using these analyses, I will determine how the changes in morphology of a volcanic edifice can influence the physical properties of the magma, therefore changing the nature of eruptive behaviour and hazards at the volcano.
The project offers considerable opportunity to advance integrated assessment of interdependencies across the wellbeings framework and establish methodologies for broad application elsewhere in New Zealand and globally.
For the Volcanic Futures programme, Roger jointly leads the Co-creation research aim with Tom Wilson, the primary objective being to apply a collaborative and iterative approach to ensure the decision-support tools developed meet multi-capital and intergenerational wellbeing objectives and are fit-for immediate use.
Roger is a Civil Engineer and Fellow of Engineering New Zealand.
His career spans government, State Owned Enterprises and the private sector, including design, construction, and government policy.
Roger is an internationally recognised expert on infrastructure resilience.
Roger is Chair of the New Zealand Lifelines (Utilities) Council and is Chair of the Earthquake Induced Landslides National Advisory Group.
He has recently been a member of the Expert Panel for development of the National Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework.
He is an independent consultant with Neo Leaf Global Ltd.
Dr Ting Wang is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Otago. She co-leads (with Professor Mark Bebbington, Massey University) Research Aim 1.4 Simulating on-going and disruptive volcanism.
Her research field is multidisciplinary centering on the interface of statistics and geosciences. Her main focus has been designing and developing novel statistical models to study seismic and volcanic activity and to provide probabilistic forecasts of future activity.
Her expertise in the area of missing data analysis and stochastic modelling will be applied to this project to design a statistical model for forecasting future eruptions (including style, location and size/duration), and identify geochemical/geophysical indicators that have good forecasting power.
Marco Brenna is co-lead of critical step 1.5. His research spans the interface of magmatic and volcanic processes by investigating the chemical and petrologic characteristics of igneous rocks to unravel their history.
He integrates microanalytical investigations of natural rocks and minerals with experimental simulations of the physicochemical conditions of magma evolution.
This approach will help to constrain pre-eruptive processes at Mt. Taranaki with the aim of understanding timescales of crystallization and degassing and the associated eruption dynamics.
This research project will enable him to broaden his experimental expertise to include near-real life understanding of volcanic and eruption processes and will expand his research to active volcanism, benefitting volcanology research in New Zealand.
As an accredited business mentor for Te Puni Kokori, Aaron worked with many Maori entities over ten years in the Maori Business Facilitation service (MBFS program).
His work experience and skillsets also cover a diverse number of sectors (domestic and international) from the primary sector to High-Tech. Aaron also has over 14 years of research and commercial experience working with Maori entities and the New Zealand research sector across the country.
Aaron has participated and completed a number of MBIE funded research projects across the country working with multiple universities, crown research institutes and government agencies.
Aaron’s experience working within multicultural environments across the country and overseas in a professional capacity has also allowed him to be able to seamlessly integrate with various organisations for the last 20 years.
Aaron’s formal qualifications include an MBA from Syracuse University (USA), and Sejong University (South Korea), and a Bachelor of Business Studies in Economics from Massey University.
Her experience encompasses a wide range of sectors such as retail, luxury, fashion and FMCG. Initially, she worked at branding, PR and digital agencies with both local and internationally notable brands, which enriched her perspective.
Imge also worked at one of the world’s largest watch and jewelry manufacturer companies as a marketing specialist.
For the last few years, she has been working with a consulting firm in Istanbul, providing consultancy, developing effective and creative marketing and communication strategies and solutions for start-up brands and large-scale national and multinational companies. Recently, she has joined Waka Digital’s team, where she manages the digital creative communications and leads social media projects.
These infographics show what might happen in an eruption on Taranaki Maunga…
Contrary to popular opinion, Mt Taranaki is neither extinct or dormant, but an active…
Stay up-to-date with the latest news and research updates from our active volcanic mountains research project. We are committed to sharing our progress with the wider public and engaging stakeholders in the research process.